Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are released from various governments. Significant resources is allocated on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from Russian territory, a capacity enabled by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been dispatched to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a automatic firearm fired at a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its destination.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: multiple fatalities, devastation and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a need that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from American administration follows the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This trend will, no doubt, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration functions according to a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration presumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does little to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the situation will not change more in its benefit in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its favour.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: political desires to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
