A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the country and triggered chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
